Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
